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General News:
Market ERCOT
April 28,
2008
The May nat
gas contract
is currently
trading at
$11.006/MMBtu
compared to
$8.219/MBBtu
this time
last year.
The Natural
Gas storage
report was
BULLISH this
week as an
INJECTION of
24 Bcf,
compared to
the 29 Bcf
injection
expected by
most
analysts.
The 24 Bcf
injection is
significantly
lower than
the normal
of 58 Bcf
but above
last year’s
injection of
1 Bcf. The
gas in
storage is
now about 4%
below the 5
year average
at 1285 Bcf,
and remains
below the
levels of
last year by
20%.
Temperatures
for the
previous 7
days are
expected to
come in
above normal
for this
time of the
year, with
only 62 HDDs.
This should
get us a
healthy
injection
for the week
and allow us
to make up
some of the
deficit to
last year.
Weather for
the next 7
days is
expected to
be near
normal.
Independence
Hub
(~1Bcf/day
or
7Bcf/week)
remains shut
down and is
scheduled to
return to
service on
May 8. The
market may
get a sigh
of relief if
it returns
to service
on May 8th
or earlier.
The 12 month
strip was
$8.755/MMBtu
last year
and is
currently at
$11.444/MMBtu.
Oil has
continued
along its
normal
course of
business,
setting
several new
records this
week.
Natural gas
seems to be
closely
watching oil
as the crude
to oil ratio
has fallen
to 10:1 and
traders seem
to be ready
to defend
that level
for now.
With the
increased
volatility
seen in the
balancing
market heat
rates again
moved up in
the
forwards.
ERCOT
Operations:
Comanche
Peak
returned to
service this
week and is
currently
operating at
100%. South
Texas is
still
expected to
be down
until early
May.
Market
Information:
This was a
volatile
week for the
Balancing
Energy
Market.
There were
several
hours with
MCPE values
printing
above
$1,000/MWH
and many
above
$2,000/MWH.
Last year’s
market
change that
called for a
re-pricing
of the
balancing
market when
Non-Spinning
Reserves (NSRS)
are deployed
was utilized
this week
moving a
large number
of MCPE
values from
an initial
print in the
$100/MWH
range to the
cap of
$2,250/MWH.
This month’s
MCPE prices
will likely
come in at
the highest
levels we
have seen
since 2005. |
